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 Market and Interest Rates

When the government lowers interest rates, mortgage interest rates usually go lower, but that is not always the case. Here are a some examples why mortgage rates sometimes go up when the government lowers rates:

  1. When government lowers rates, they lower the Federal Funds rate. This is the rate at which large banks lend money to one another and is a short term rate. Mortgage rates are long-term  up to 30 years. Long term rates are more sensitive to expected inflation. When short term rates decrease, borrowing and spending usually increase, which causes inflation to rise. Long term rates, like mortgage rates can rise when there is a potential inflation increase.

 

  1. Markets are often ahead of the government. Interest rates are calculated every day in  public markets. If those markets think the economy is slowing, interest rates may decrease as markets anticipate that the government might decrease short term rates. This happened before when mortgage rates began steadily decreasing, even when the government left their short-term rates unchanged. The opposite can happen as well. Mortgage rates can increase well ahead of the government increasing short term rates.

It is practically impossible to accurately predict the future of something as complex as the economy. But, it is important that we,mortgage consumers, understand these market dynamics, otherwise  lack of understanding could cost us a lot of money.



 

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